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Speculators buy tomorrow and sell today. Investors can make good business if they believe in yesterday. Home Depot (NYSE: HD ) is a good example of this brand principle. HD shares have risen from a pandemic low of $152 last March to $286 in August. They then recovered for months before falling 11% last month.
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The catalyst? Record earnings and dividend growth. Fourth quarter sales were $32.3 billion, up 25% year over year. Net income per share increased by 14% to $2.65. The dividend increased by 10 percent.
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Speculators responded with sell orders. They benefited. However, investors who waited for this process and get in today can get a 2.56% dividend next year and a forward price ratio of 20.8.
Traders and speculators love bright and shiny things. A year ago, when we first closed on our homes, Home Depot was a shiny, shiny object.
In a February report, Home Depot and rival Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW ) noted that Home Depot visits were up 22% year-over-year in January. They have increased by double digits every month since last May.
Stock charts tell a different story. Home Depot’s stock performance began tracking the S&P 500 average in December. These indicators only accelerated this year. Since the start of 2021, Home Depot is down about 7%.
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Those who took advantage of this ran to the shiny and bright objects of today. SPACs, electric car plays, fintech, and Bitcoin (CCC: BTC-USD ) are as hot today as Home Depot is cool.
The pandemic has created permanent changes in housing and office space. Most scientists are no longer interested in returning to the office. The office lease may expire. However, the apartments will need to be expanded to accommodate the new home office. The remaining space should be used better. This means a lot of work not only for consumers, but also for builders and contractors. It is necessary to reorganize the projects and rebuild the existing offices.
For retailers like Home Depot, spring means Christmas. The season of planting is the season of profit. Plans dreamed up in the cold will come to fruition when it warms up, and hopefully before it warms up.
HD stock trades at about half the average price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P stock, which is more than 38. The inflation-adjusted Shiller ratio is 34.
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While equity analysts see Home Depot shares bearish in the short, medium and long term, analysts at
Have a more optimistic view. Nine out of 10 people say they will buy it. Their one-year average target of $315 is 27% higher than where the stock is currently trading.
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Now is the time to buy Home Depot. Earn a 2.5% dividend, watch the growth of variable housing models and relax.
This is the difference between trying to get rich quick and getting rich slowly. Buy great companies when they are at their worst and let time work its magic for you. At that time, five years ago, Home Depot was selling for $126 and had a dividend of 69 cents. It is now trading at $248 and the dividend is $1.65.
At the time of publication, Dana Blankenhorn held no direct or indirect stock in the companies mentioned in this article.
Dana Blankenhorn has been a financial journalist since 1978. His most recent book, The Great Theory of Technology: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow with Moore’s Law, essays on technology, is available in the Amazon Kindle store. Follow him on Twitter at @danablakenhorn.
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